Pink Tie Index

Usually, economists use employment numbers, the interest rate spread or manufacturers’ supply orders to gauge the strength of a recovery, but why go to all that trouble when you could just take a trip to the mall?

Forbes Magazine says that there's a whole host of uncommon indicators of where our economy is headed. A packed mall doesn’t necessarily mean people are buying. The real way to figure out whether sales are looking up, says retail researcher Marshall Cohen, is to count shopping bags, which he does every week. He says as of August, the year-over-year bag count dropped 12 percent. But that’s much better than January’s year-over-year drop of 20 percent.

Economist Bob Allsbrook adds that you can also look for men in pink ties. People who feel more confident will wear brighter colors. Preceding last fall’s market meltdown, Allsbrook said he saw a sea of beige. Now, businessmen are donning colors like fuchsia.

What are some other unusual economic indicators? The size of garbage bags outside restaurants, which indicate how many people are eating out; the number of people cancelling hotel reservations; and how easy it is to get a tee time at the golf links.

So where are all these uncommon indicators pointing? The results are mixed. Guess they’re more like predictions of real economists than we thought.

Photo courtesy Stevendepolo, via Flickr.