FBI's Surprise Findings: Economy Down, But So Is Crime

The notion that as the economy goes south, crime rates can be expected to soar is not only conventional wisdom, but it has long held currency among social scientists and law enforcement professionals.

A report on US crime statistics just released by the FBI however paints an unexpectedly upbeat picture of what's going on right now in America. As reported by The Christian Science Monitor, violent crime rates fell precipitously in 2009 across the country, very much in spite of a national economy that has remained mired in troubles.

We've had inklings of this trend: Tonic wrote back in September of the drop in New York City's murder rate, and in November about the unexpected benefit of more people being out of work and at home where they can keep an eye on their neighborhoods.

This week's FBI report reveals a remarkable trend, and one that appears to be consistent across the country. The Los Angeles Times and the San Francisco Chronicle are reporting similar violent crime drops in their cities, while CNN offers a year-end summary of New York City's drop in violent crime that holds to the pattern of good news evident back in the fall.

The Monitor notes that gun sales have risen dramatically, despite the drop in crime (kicking off debate on both sides of the aisle yet again.) However, long term statistical analysis of gun sales and crime rates do not show a cause and effect relationship as David Kennedy, director of the Center for Crime Prevention and Control in New York, explains to The Monitor. He points out that a significant decrease in the rate of crime is happening for categories of crime regardless of whether guns are involved, diminishing the argument that a deterrence factor is at play.

So what gives? It's unclear, but it could have something to do with revised and improved police methods across the country as well as more people being at home and vigilant, as mentioned above. Either way, it's good news!

Photo courtesy of Klaus with K  via Wikimedia Commons.