Sasquatch Out for Bad Data

Bigfoot's range is due for major adjustment as a result of climate change. His traditional stomping grounds in California and Oregon are poised to shrink, but an eastward expansion of favorable conditions may see the legendary beast step up his presence in the Rockies.

University of Illinois biologist Jeff Lozier made this tongue-in-cheek assessment of Bigfoot's plight as a commentary on what he and his co-authors deem to be a flawed climate modeling methodology.

Writing in the Journal of Biogeography, Lozier takes aim specifically at ecological niche modeling.

This method begins with the locations of species sightings as a foundation. Using what is known about environmental conditions at these points of sighting, modeling deduces where the creature in question might be expected to be found based on conditions known to be similar in neighboring areas.

The problems with this method, argue the authors, arises from several factors, not the least of which is the assumption that species inhabit an area because conditions seem right, without having an actual sighting. Human error — mistaking one species for another — is another problem, as is an infrastructural bias: Field locations are less likely to be better understood and sampled the farther away they are from drivable roads.

In another example of the garbage-in, garbage-out problem, the article points out that without providing good observational data, and without fully exploring any assumptions that are made, some habitat studies may not be yeti for prime time.

Photo courtesy of bolggingexperiments.wordpress.com.